Magincia House Plot Lottery Ticket Sales Analysis

[UO Herald]

Originally posted 8 Jun 2011 16:27:11 EST by Kai Schober on the UO Herald:

Overview

During the Magincia House Plot Lottery event, Ultima Online ran a lottery to win ownership of a number of 15x15 house plots located on the newly-rebuilt Isle of Magincia. There are 22 of these plots per facet (Felucca and Trammel), and 27 shards. Siege Perilous, having no Trammel facet, only had only 22 raffled plots, while the remaining 26 shards auctioned 44 plots. The total number of plots raffled is 1,166.

Due to mistaken deletion of a related in-game object, there are no logs for plot SW-4 on the Trammel facet of the Atlantic shard. The numbers in this analysis therefore only include values for 1,165 lotteries. The numbers of tickets sold are in actuality slightly greater than those reported here. It is possible to estimate values of the missing data by extrapolation, but we make no attempt to do so here.

Each of the 22 plots per facet were raffled in one of two ways: One Ticket Per User Account (“limited”), and Unlimited Tickets Per Customer (“unlimited”). 12 of the plots were limited lotteries, while the other 10 were unlimited. Limited-lottery tickets cost the player 10,000gp, and the unlimited-lottery tickets cost 2,000gp each.

Here are some overall statistics for the lottery:
•Total Ticket Sales ◦Total ticket sales for Limited Lottery plots were 139,482 (1,394,820,000gp).
◦Total ticket sales for Unlimited Lottery plots were 23,710,748 (47,421,496,000gp).
◦The total amount of gold spent on lottery tickets was 48,816,316,000gp.

•Player Participation ◦9,655 user accounts bought tickets for the lottery
◦9,266 users bought tickets for Limited Lottery plots
◦7,329 users bought tickets for Unlimited Lottery plots
◦6,940 users bought tickets for both types of lotteries

•Winner Distribution ◦833 unique user accounts won plots from the lottery
◦1 user won 10 plots
◦2 users won 7 plots each
◦8 users won 6 plots each
◦7 users won 5 plots each
◦17 users won 4 plots each
◦40 users won 3 plots each
◦112 users won 2 plots each
◦The remaining 646 users won a single plot




Details – Limited Lotteries

The complete report showing Limited Lottery Ticket Sales by Shard, Facet, and Plot can be downloaded in a pdf http://www.uorpc.net/images/uomktg/Magi ... alysis.pdf. We include summary lines by Facet and Shard, with grand totals.


Details – Unlimited Lotteries

Here we present a breakdown of the ticket sales for this lottery, summarized in several different ways. The column headers in these summaries are as follows:
•Plot Player Total Average Median Std Dev Max (Chance) Winner (Chance)

•Shard, Facet, and Plot – these indicate the location of the plot by server and facet, and include the plot number as used in-game for the lottery.
•Player is the number of unique user accounts that purchased tickets in that particular lottery.
•Total is the total number of tickets purchased for that lottery
•Average shows the average (or mean) number of tickets purchased by each participant of that plot’s lottery.
•Median shows the median value of tickets purchased; half the participants of that lottery purchased less than this number while the rest purchased more.
•Std Dev shows Standard Deviation, which is the dispersion from the mean value amongst ticket purchasers. This number is the square root of the variance in ticket sales. A higher value here indicates a larger range in number of tickets purchased for that lottery.
•Max is the number of tickets purchased by the largest ticket purchaser; the (Chance) column beside it shows the chances that user had of winning.
•Winner indicates the number of tickets purchased by the plot’s winner, and the (Chance) column beside it shows the chance that user had of winning.

The complete report showing Unlimited lottery ticket purchase information, broken down by individual plot, grouped by shard and facet can be downloaded in a pdf http://www.uorpc.net/images/uomktg/Magi ... alysis.pdf.